A German regional radio station offers a special lottery. They buy lottery tickets for 1.000 EUR and you get all the money which is mentioned in the tickets as direct wins.
In Maximum you can win 600.000 EUR if the 500 tickets (which cost 1.000 EUR) include 2 direct jackpot tickets (with 300.000 EUR each). The chance is 1/5.000.000 per ticket, so getting both is dramatically low.
But what money could you win for real?
As I am doing some data science courses currently I was interested in what you can win honestly by taking part in Radio N1’s lottery. Therefore I wrote a code in R Studio which runs a Monte Carlo Simulation considering the chance per direct win (for more information on the „BayernLos“ and its odds look here).
The plot below shows the outcome of a simulation of 1.000.000 simulated lottery runs.
The minimum amount in the 1.000.000 simulated lotteries was 214 EUR, the maximum 300.782 EUR. So it contained 1 direct jackpot ticket.
In average you get 509.40 EUR (blue line in plot). In 95% of the cases you will win less than 5553.37 EUR (green line).
If you are interested in the code behind the plot, check my public Github repository.
I hope you enjoyed this little excursion into Data Science an I am looking forward to receive some feedback from you.